Sprint Sees Growth Ahead and Vows to Get Aggressive on Debt

Ockham Research submits:

Sprint Nextel (S) is getting a boost today after announcing that it will continue strict cost management in an effort to aggressively pay down debt. During a discussion with analysts, Sprint’s CFO Bob Brust reiterated their goals to reduce the debt burden which has slowly declined since the Nextel acquisition, too slowly for many investors. Sprint has seen improving trends as far as customer retention or churn rate in the last few quarters, but it is still a huge hurdle as more than half a million post-paid wireless clients defected to competitors in the fourth quarter. Perhaps most importantly though, Brust expects to see revenue growth in the coming quarters; it would be the first growth since fiscal 2006.

Obviously, when Sprint acquired Nextel they took on debt to finance the transaction, but they expected better growth and cost savings as a result of the transaction. Instead, the company has dealt with declining sales almost as soon as the $35 billion transaction closed. In hindsight, the so-called “merger of equals” has lead to plenty of headaches for the combined company and on Friday Sprint’s credit rating was chopped yet again by S&P to BB-. The credit rating agency pointed to continued churn in their precious post-paid wireless clients (504,000 post-paid subscribers lost in Q4), which is more profitable than the prepaid wireless service, which is at least growing.S


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The Brinks Company at Bargain-Basement Price

Above Average Odds Investing submits:

Warren Buffet, in a 2010 letter to his shareholders, stated:

In the end, what counts in investing is what you pay for a business – through the purchase of a small piece of it in the stock market – and what the business earns in the succeeding decade or two.


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Research In Motion Breaks Above Range

optionMONSTER submits:

By Bryan McCormick

Shares of Research In Motion (RIMM) broke out above the top of its trading range this morning at the $72 area.


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It’s Time to Get Our Short Sale On

The Oxen Group submits:

Hope everyone had a nice weekend. Today, we are starting off with a chart of the Dow Jones. This shows you that we have a market that, in the short term, is extremely overvalued. RSI is above 60, the average is moving towards the top of its bollinger bands, and it is overbought on stochastics. All this is showing to me that the market is toppy. That chart is how I want to start this week to show you that I think we are going to be looking at some short sales and inverse ETFs unless we have reason to believe the market will rally. Today, I do not see any major reason to believe that will happen. Also, be sure to check out my Weekend Wrap-Up and Portfolio Update, which shows how we have increased our Buy Pick Portfolio 129% in one year.

Buy Pick of the Day: Ultrashort Proshares Real Estate ETF (SRS)


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Five Quality Dividend Stocks Despite High Payout Ratios

eChristian Investing submits:

For investors currently evaluating dividend stocks, there really are a lot of attractive options. The average yield of dividend stocks in the Dow Jones index is now 2.9%. The S&P 500 sports 15 stocks with dividend yields above 6%. Those are pretty attractive yields for income investors, given that a money market account currently offers less than a 1% return. However, many dividend investors automatically ignore high yielding dividend stocks as they assume that such high yields are too good to be true.
Of course there is much more to evaluating a dividend stock than just looking at its yield. Intelligent investors will look not only at a stock’s yield, but also at their payout ratio or the ratio of dividend payments to net earnings. A high dividend payout ratio is typically a warning sign that the current dividend level is unsustainable. However, eDividendStocks.com has taken a look at 5 dividend stocks that are dangerously high, but also have very deceiving payout ratios. These 5 dividend stocks offer investors impressively high dividend yields, and they have sufficient free cash flow to maintain their dividend payments.
Qwest Communications (Q)
Qwest offers dividend investors an impressive 6.9% dividend yield. Wall Street expects that net earnings will decline by 10% this year, pushing the stock’s dividend payout ratio to 94%. However, the company generated nearly $2 billion in free cash flow in 2009 and has very impressive EBITDA margins (36% in the fourth quarter). With a manageable dividend/free cash flow ratio, Qwest should be able to maintain their dividend payout despite Wall Street’s expectations of further revenue declines in 2010 and 2011.
Frontier Communications (FTR)
Frontier Communications is the highest yielding stock in the S&P 500 with an amazing 13.7% dividend yield. The telecom stock is in the midst of acquiring assets from Verizon (VZ) in an $8.6 billion deal. Once the transaction is completed the company will reduce their dividend to $.75 per year. The dividend reduction along with the Verizon transaction will significantly improve their dividend payout ratio from their current 175% level, but will still offer investors an amazing 10% dividend yield.
Windstream (WIN)
Windstream is the second highest yielding dividend stock in the S&P 500 with a 9.6% dividend yield. While the company’s annual dividend payout of $1.00 per share exceeds their anticipated net earnings of $.85 per share, the telecom stock is only expected to pay out 55% of their free cash flow in 2010. Wall Street also expects the stock to grow earnings in both 2010 and 2011.
Paychex (PAYX)
Paychex currently offers investors a respectable 4% dividend yield, but at the same time they are using 93% of their net earnings to fund their dividend payment. However, Wall Street expects the company’s earnings to grow by 8% in 2011. Though the labor markets are still a long way from full recovery, investors are recognizing that the Paychex outlook is much brighter than it was just a few quarters ago.
Verizon
While Verizon may be the second highest yielding dividend stock in the Dow Jones index, declining earnings in 2010 could put pressure on the company’s high dividend. However, given the company’s strong dividend history we believe a dividend cut is unlikely from Verizon – despite a dividend payout ratio that is now above 80%. A costly marketing battle with AT&T (T) could prevent Verizon from increasing their dividend this year, but the chances of a dividend cut are slim.
When evaluating dividend stocks, free cash flow is often a much better measure to look at than net earnings. Without looking at a company’s cash flow, you can often be ignoring great dividend stocks. A high dividend payout ratio certainly shouldn’t preclude you from doing further analysis on a great dividend opportunity.

Disclosure: No Positions


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Are REITs Ready to Break Through to 18-Month Highs?

Avi Morris submits:

Stock markets are in rally mode and the higher yielders are getting a lot of attention as they did last year. The Alerian MLP Index is still close to the 300 ceiling which has held twice. Junk bond funds are at or near roughly 18 month highs (bringing more modest yields). REITs over the last 6 months have been stumbling while trying to make new highs. The Dow Jones REIT Index had been near 330 three years ago and then held well in the first 8 months of 2008. But in September it fell one third to the 180-190 area, which has served as ceiling since then. The Dow Jones REIT Index hit a 181 high in September 2009, then slipped back. In December it reached 190 only to pull back again. Since February, the index has been in a rally mode and only needs another 3 points for another post Lehman collapse peak.

While REITs benefited from higher stock prices they also received a significant boost when Simon Property (SPG) made a bid last month for General Growth Properties, the only REIT forced to file for Chapter 11 in this recession. The offer was rejected with the hopes of even greater rewards after emerging from bankruptcy. The optimism about General Growth Properties was based on recognition that strong underlying values remain in owning real estate. An old rule of thumb for real estate said that in a decade there are 2 very good years, 2 bad years and the rest are middle years. This time the bad period is worse, longer and deeper than any since the depression. And all indications are that the bad period will not end soon.


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Why I’m Bullish on China Advanced Construction Materials Group

Ephraim Fields submits:

China Advanced Construction Materials Group, (CADC or the “company”) is an undervalued and undiscovered stock which represents an interesting way to capitalize on China’s massive infrastructure build out. CADC is a major provider of concrete for large, infrastructure projects.

The company is one of only 10 companies that is certified to provide concrete for national infrastructure projects and the company has long-standing relations with major China’s top contractors and construction companies.


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Strong Q4 Sends Gap’s Estimates Soaring

Zacks.com submits:

Earnings estimates of Gap Inc. (GPS), a premier international specialty retailer, have increased recently with strong fourth quarter and fiscal 2009 results (see conference call transcript here). The company reported net income of $352 million or 51 cents per share during the quarter, compared to $243 million or 34 cents per share in the year-earlier quarter. For fiscal 2009, Gap reported net income of $1.1 billion or $1.58 per share compared to $967 million or $1.34 per share in fiscal 2008.

Net sales during the quarter were $4.24 billion compared to $4.08 billion in the year-ago quarter. Comparable store sales increased 2% during the quarter compared to a year earlier. Robust earnings were primarily driven by solid sales at its low-priced Old Navy segment and the highest fourth quarter operating margins in over a decade. The Old Navy chain has benefited from the increasing preference among U.S. shoppers for lower-priced stores due to the challenging macroeconomic environment.


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Why Hedge Funds Like Mead Johnson Nutrition

Market Folly submits:

In our hedge fund portfolio tracking series we noticed that quite a few long/short equity funds added shares of Mead Johnson Nutrition (MJN) in the fourth quarter of 2009. In a recent letter to investors, Dan Loeb explained the rationale behind his hedge fund Third Point’s position in MJN and we thought this would be a perfect time to examine just why so many hedgies are fond of this company.

Mead Johnson Nutrition (MJN) completely separated from Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) in December of 2009. MJN is a leading infant formula producer and carries the well known brand Enfamil, making it a definitive consumer staples play.


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Coca-Cola Is the Type of Stock Dividend Growth Investors Seek

Dividends4Life submits:

Linked here is a detailed quantitative analysis of The Coca-Cola Company (KO) (pdf file). Below are some highlights from the above linked analysis:


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Omni Energy Services: Leveraged Micro-Cap Play on the U.S. Oil and Gas Services Sector

Omni Energy Services (OMNI) is an integrated oil field services company based in Carencro, Louisiana. Founded in 1987, and currently employing 850 people, the company provides seismic drilling, environmental services, equipment leasing and transportation services to oil and gas exploration and production companies throughout the Gulf of Mexico and the Rocky Mountains region.
Though well respected in its industry and led by capable and experienced management, Omni Energy Services is under the radar of nearly all investors, and won´t be turning up in the results column of many stock screening programs. This is because the market capitalization of OMNI is currently just over $32 million (a nanocap more than a microcap). Additionally, the share pays no dividend and the company lost 72 cents per share in 2008 and has lost an accumulated
one cent per share in the first three quarters of 2009 (4th quarter and year end results are expected to be released in the next several days).
Why do I recommend that aggressive growth investors take a position in this share? Firstly, for sector rotation reasons. The oil services sector is highly cyclical, and has suffered a severe and prolonged downturn during this extended recession. Nearly all companies in this sector are reporting losses for the past year. As recently as 2007, OMNI earned 40 cents a share, which was preceded by earnings of 89 cents per share in 2006. The easing of the credit crunch and the rise in oil and gas prices in recent months is benefiting this sector. For example OIH, the Oil Services HLDR, has nearly doubled in the last 12 months. Omni itself has nearly tripled during the past year from its low of only 55 cents per share.
I believe that the upturn in the oil and gas services sector has much further to run. The world economic situation is improving, particularly in some areas such as industrial production. Energy prices are likely to remain at their new higher levels as fears of global depression ease, while the emerging markets continue to generate very high growth rates for their energy hungry populations.
Finally, and most importantly for the US Oil and Gas services sector, the political tide in the United States is clearly turning in favor of domestic energy production, including environmentally responsible exploitation of the huge gas and oil reserves of the United States both on land and offshore. The anticipation of a more conservative and pro-domestic drilling Congress in Washington DC following the 2010 midterm elections may well be a catalyst to further gains for companies in this sector in coming months. A boost in capital spending in the sector is imminent, and with that increased revenues for oil and gas services companies.
If the reader accepts the sector case, read on for the company specific argument.
Firstly, the capitalization issue. All things being equal (though they never are) I prefer a low capitalization share to high capitalization share. By natural law, it is more difficult for a $100 billion capitalization company to double its capitalization (and stock price) than it is for a $100 million company to become a $200 million company. In the case of OMNI, the stock price is severely depressed by the cyclical downturn in the industry, as well as by the considerable (but not unmanageable) long term debt on the company´s balance sheet, approximately 40% of total company capitalization.
OMNI is on good terms with its creditors and is not in danger of a cash squeeze, despite the pressure that this debt has placed on the share price in the midst of a credit crisis and severe recession. The CFO is Ronald Mogel, an experienced financial professional well tutored in the sector. See for yourself on his LinkedIn profile.
What do the analysts predict for OMNI Energy Services? Well…they don´t predict anything. OMNI it too small to generate worthwhile investment banking fees, and is not followed by any of the sell-side analysts. However, despite this, OMNI has a 12% institutional ownership with over 30 institutions among its shareholders. Furthermore, 19% of the shares are held by insiders.
I consider extremely positive the fact that there has been sustained insider buying throughout the decline and recent recovery of the stock price. In fact, I don´t find any insider sales since October of 2008 when the share was over $8.
Here I would like to deal briefly with the enormous bias against microcap shares among serious individual investors who can in principle live with the low dollar value trading volume which characterizes these shares. OMNI is indeed a microcap, but it is not, and never was, a "penny stock", even when the share price reached 50 cents a year ago.
I would never invest in a penny stock, insofar as penny stocks are characterized by shady or unscrupulous management, a nonexistent or ‘in development’ product or service, blatant promotion of the stock based on rumors rather than facts or reasoned arguments, and most significantly, a large and increasing number of issued shares.
The only point of buying a share in a company which does not pay a dividend is to pay money today for something which you expect to be able to sell for more money in the future. That is to say, the investor anticipates that the supply and demand curve for the share will shift to a point where the equilibrium price for the shares in the stock market will be higher than the equilibrium price which existed on the date when the investor purchased the shares. If there is increased demand for the share due to improvement in the company´s earnings or profit outlook, and no additional shares have been issued, this curve will move in the investor´s favor. In contrast, if a company is frequently issuing new shares to fund ongoing operations or endless product development, the market and the supply demand curve will not shift in the investors’ favor until the increased demand for the shares is so strong that is able to overcome the factor of greatly increased supply. In the case of classic penny stocks, this never occurs.
Before recommending OMNI, among my due diligence steps, I have looked at the total number of shares issued, which is not increasing, as well as at the professional reputation and work history of the current management. I found the management of OMNI to be composed of well seasoned professionals of the oil and gas service industry. Is this a guarantee? Certainly not, but it is a good sign and a necessary condition for serious investing. Can a LinkedIn profile be false? Most certainly, but not likely, as in the case of OMNI’s CFO above, this is a public document open to reading by employers, clients, as well as peers and future employers and clients.
A final word on microcaps. Years ago, I worked for a publicly quoted company with a very bullish logo with a market capitalization of over $50 billion, which was highly recommended by the many prestigious Wall Street firms which followed the share. This company essentially went bankrupt, suddenly and unexpectedly, in the turbulent events of the fall of 2007. My former employer´s high capitalization did not protect its shareholders, including many loyal employees of all salary levels who had all of their retirements savings in the form of the company´s shares. High capitalization was no guarantee for investors in Enron, or Citibank (C), or Bear Stearns, or any number of collapsed corporate behemoths during the last decade.
My point is that microcaps should not be excluded from an investor’s portfolio, particularly their growth stock portfolio, simply for having a low capitalization. By all means, penny stocks should be excluded, as well as any microcap stock that fails your own due diligence concerning the quality of the management, the number of outstanding shares, the reality of the product or service offered by the company, and any other of a host of factors which can now be investigated by internet from the comfort of your own home or office, from anywhere in the world.

Taking this approach, an investor can truly Seek Alpha, rather than simply accept the Index Beta, by finding ‘under the radar’ jewels which are too small to attract attention from professional analysts but can be very rewarding to your portfolio over time. I believe that OMNI Energy Services is one such microcap opportunity and recommend purchasing shares at the current price.


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Risk Appetite Appears to Be Back

This Week in the Markets is a weekly series that describes, at a very high level, how we manage our long-term portfolio. We use John Murphy’s inter-market ideas, looking at the performance of equities, bonds, commodities and foreign exchange markets. We attempt to measure appetite for risk, and from that draw conclusions on whether to go long or short these asset classes.

We have various proprietary market algorithms, risk and commodity indicators that we use. But they are for another article. What we show here is intended to be understood and acted upon by investors of every level.


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3 Asian Pacific Regional Banks to Watch

Thomas Smicklas submits:

Jimmy Rogers, traveling the world from his Singapore home base, is adamant when he states that most western countries in debt up to their eyeballs to the Asian Pacific world face an economic holocaust. How this plays out is open to speculation, but many scenarios look grim for the spenders and bright for the lenders.

Investors who want to explore exposure the Asian Pacific region may want to explore regional banks with a strong yield that are traded in US markets. I like three of them:


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